Two Wars, No Clear Exit Plan. Now What? | TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer

The ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have reached a state of volatile stalemate, where the United States and its adversaries are avoiding all-out war due to the threat of unacceptable economic and military consequences. President Trump’s ability to force favorable outcomes is diminishing as other nations increasingly hedge their bets and prepare for a post-Trump global landscape.

• Strait of Hormuz deadlock — The US aims to force compliance through infrastructure strikes, while Iran maintains a blockade of the waterway to extract financial concessions [02:36].
• Mutual restraint — Neither side has escalated to full-scale warfare, as the cost of damage to US bases and regional stability remains prohibitively high for both parties [07:09].
• Economic consequences — Global energy and supply chains are under pressure, resulting in an estimated $600 to $700 increase in annual costs per American household [13:12].
• Russian asymmetric tactics — Moscow is increasingly using sabotage, arson, and cyber-attacks within Europe to break NATO unity, posing a greater risk of conflict expansion than the current situation in the Middle East [31:01].
• Diplomatic pressure — External actors, including China and Kazakhstan, are pressuring Russia to accept a ceasefire to prevent further economic deterioration [35:03].
• Diminishing US leverage — International confidence in US-led policy is waning, with other countries increasingly maneuvering to act independently of Washington's preferences [37:21].

How do regional powers balance the costs of maintaining a blockade versus the benefits of negotiating a resolution? What variables are most likely to force a change in the current military stalemate in Ukraine?